Looking ahead, you could say that TV’s midseason, which runs from now through March, will be bright and exciting. But only when compared to the truly bleak state of TV last fall. Looking ahead, only two networks, ABC and Fox, are poised to make a splash with new series.

In this programming recession, unlike the economy, there are no official indicators to define when, exactly, TV’s net entertainment value started moving in a downward direction. But anyone who watches knows it has. And even if the economy improves through 2009, there is not much to suggest that TV programming will do the same.

What’s to blame? The sad state of the economy, for sure, but also the writers’ strike. Though the strike ended nearly a year ago, the industry has yet to recover from its effects (lost business, lost viewers, less development) and just maybe it never will.

The impact last fall was like a comet colliding with the Earth. Industry dinosaurs, steeped in the age-old tradition of development and holding deals, began to disappear, along with their expensive contracts with writers and talent and the large ratio of pilots to pickups.

The shock from the twin comets of the economy and the strike created a wave of financial Darwinism that, particularly in some quarters, placed a premium on cheap production costs, regardless of how few viewers actually tuned in. The new philosophy, the one that says there is little to gain by lavish spending on development and production, is on its way to becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

At NBC during the 1980s, chairman Grant Tinker used to preach: “First, be good. Then be first.” Today, his successors have a new mantra: “First be frugal. Then who cares?” The network will follow its new strategy to its logical conclusion this summer, when it converts five hours of pristine primetime acreage to make way for a Jay Leno strip mall.

Were it not for the return of Friday Night Lights which owes its continued existence mostly to the passion of DirecTV and TV critics, there would be almost nothing new on the network in midseason for which to cheer.

On CBS, the problem is less one of cost containment than a reluctance to stray from the crime drama formats that made it the leader among TV households. Unwilling to roll the dice, CBS spring highlights consist mainly of the inoffensive reality show, Game Show in My Head and a 13-episode murder-mystery, Harper’s Island.

Corporate cousin CW’s midseason gift to viewers is a reality show, 13: Fear is Real, a sort of  “Survivor: Halloween” show.

Thank heaven, then, for ABC and Fox, both of which are led by imaginative programming execs and blessed with larger concentrations of young viewers coveted by advertisers.

Thanks to American Idol, Fox could just about win the season with test patterns in the other time slots. Instead, it has several promising new series in the wings. Among them are Lie to Me, a clever crime drama featuring a human lie detector; Glee, a high school drama; the long-awaited Doll House; and animated comedies The Cleveland Show and Sit Down, Shut Up.

ABC will give Fox a run for its money with a new version of Cupid, a quirky cop show called The Unusuals and an Odd Couple detective show named Castle. A workplace comedy, Better Off Ted, is appealing, as is the description of a new animated comedy, The Goode Family.

Barring an actors strike and assuming a federal stimulus plan that puts America back on a path of financial growth, the networks can plan for a fall season under familiar conditions. Then we’ll know for sure whether and to what extent the change inflicted by those two financial comets is permanent.

Barry Garron is a freelance writer and TV critic who has covered the industry for more than 25 years for The Hollywood Reporter and The Kansas City Star. You can contact him at tv.critic@yahoo.com.